A grave development in the Congo situation occurred last night when Premier Moise Tshombe of Katanga Province declared the province to be “totally independent.” He had previously declared a state of emergency.

Up to the present the disturbances in the Congo have been of an unexpected kind, i.e., a widespread mutiny of Congolese units of the Force Publique against their Belgian officers and against Europeans generally. What had been expected was disorders between the many strong tribal elements within the country and between tribal authorities and the new central government. It had been feared, moreover, that the central government, even with the backing of a loyal Force Publique, might be unable to maintain order. This pattern has been largely absent, however, until the present.

The Katanga revolt raises several new and disturbing elements. The province contains almost the whole of the Congo’s potential wealth and natural resources, is the most highly industrialized, and is the location of the most important outside investment. Without the Katanga all possibility that the Congo might be a unified and economically viable state would disappear. The area is coveted by its white neighbours in the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland whose rich copper belt adjoins. A few weeks ago Prime Minister Sir Roy Welensky caused considerable trouble by announcing that if the Congo were to break up the Rhodesias might find it necessary to take over the Katanga. He was probably rapped over the knuckles by Whitehall for this statement, but even since the disorders in the Congo broke out he has said that the Federation could only consider intervention in Katanga if its assistance were requested by the proper authorities. We know that this too caused great embarrassment to the United Kingdom Government, which may well have felt that its hands were tied in the whole issue as a result.¹ In any event when Tshombe requested assistance from the Federation a few days ago, the United Kingdom Government replied that such a request from a provincial government could not be entertained. Northern Rhodesian troops are, nonetheless, reported to be moving up to the border, ostensibly to protect European refugees.

The revolt of the Katanga raises other international complications. Elizabethville, the provincial capital, was the scene of serious mutiny in the Congolese security forces, and Belgian paratroopers had to be sent (as they were elsewhere) to raise a siege on Belgian officers and other white residents, virtually taking over control of Elizabethville in the process. It was this fact which undoubtedly encouraged Tshombe to make his declaration of independence. There will be a temptation for Belgian business and financial interests to put pressure on their government to ally itself openly with Tshombe. Whether this happens or not the revolt in fact creates a situation of civil war in which there will be strong pressures on European powers to take sides. This might lead to the fall of the Lumumba Government with no alternative national leadership in sight.

We should not lose sight of the fact that during the disorders the central government had done its best to contain the mutiny, to protect Europeans, and to restore normal conditions. This objective, moreover, seems to have been achieved in Leopoldville. The central government has given no indication of not wishing to maintain close and friendly relations with Belgium, and has appealed to Belgian technicians to remain in the country.

[N.A. ROBERTSON]

¹Note marginale :/Marginal note:
Canadian eyes only. [Auteur inconnu/Author unknown]