Following for the Prime Minister from Pearson, Begins: The feeling I get here from my work at the United Nations, from official and unofficial talks in New York and in Washington with all kinds of people, from the newspapers and magazines I read and the broadcasts I listen to - is one of growing acceptance of the view that a general war is closer than it has been at any time since 1945, and that it will now be a miracle if it is averted. I must confess that I have myself come closer to this tragic conclusion after listening to the President's Thursday night broadcast⁸⁹ and after our discouraging efforts to negotiate a "cease fire" with Peking through the Chinese Communist representatives here. It is not so much that the Peiping people speak the tough language of Moscow and show the same brutal, uncompromising attitude. I am more frightened by their fanatical conceit in the strength and righteousness of the Communist side in every issue, and their stubborn insistence that peace can only be ensured - and they talk much about peace - if the United States mends its ways. The American position, in the face of all this, is definitely hardening, between bursts of excitement, into the mould of total preparation for and widespread acceptance of war. The President's broadcast, calm and measured as it was, confirmed that view. The stated reaction to the Chinese Communists here to this broadcast was that it merely proved what they knew all along; that the Americans wanted to fight in order to destroy Communism by arms wherever they could find it; otherwise, why would Mr. Truman talk about mobilization, a word which, to them, presaged war. They, on their part, were just as determined to protect their revolution against the American aggressors as the Russians were in 1918-1919.

2. It is equally clear by now that the United States is determined to make itself far stronger than it has ever been before in peace time, whatever the results may be. I think that there is still a very good chance that, if this increasing strength can be accompanied by wise and unprovocative diplomacy, it may prove to be an effective deterrent against war. There is, however, also the risk that, with China on the march and all of Asia restless, it may provoke the Russians to strike within the next twelve months, before the Western European defences reach a point where an easy victory is impossible. All this means that we have trying and dangerous months ahead. One aspect of this difficulty will be growing pressure on us, within and without Canada, to strengthen even further our own armed forces and our defence potential.

3. I feel quite certain that developments are rolling up which will make it necessary for us to take even more far-reaching decisions in the weeks ahead than we had to take last summer, on matters concerned with defence, finance, economic and industrial organization, and the best use of our manpower to carry out our commitments. In fact, I do not see how we can adjust ourselves to these new developments without such decisions. We will be a little clearer on this point, of course, when we get the results of the Brussels meeting; but the main problem will be one that is deeper than the Atlantic Pact, namely the impossibility of escaping the consequences of the steps that are being taken here in the direction of total mobilization; consequences which will be as important politically and economically for us as they will be in the defence field. We have certainly managed to keep an even keel in the stormy weather of the last twelve months, but it is, to my way of thinking, going to be more difficult to do that in the months ahead.

4. 1 hope you do not mind my putting down these random thoughts as they occurred to me here in New York. They certainly do not breathe the spirit of Christmas, but then the negotiations I am in the middle of now with the Chinese are not such as to make one think of Christmas. They have been depressing, almost frightening. Ends.

⁸⁹Voir/See Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Harry S. Truman 1950, Document 303, pp. 741-746.