1. Mr. Beaudry welcomed Mr. Kearney and asked him to comment on the Kashmir situation. Mr. Kearney said that compared with other crises that had arisen in India, the Kashmir dispute was undoubtedly the gravest and most serious threat to the peace which India and Pakistan had faced. He briefly reviewed some of the problems and difficulties bearing on the issue.

2. Kashmir, a princely state with a predominantly Moslem population (approximately 80 per cent), is governed by a Hindu Maharaja whose supporters are drawn largely from the Dogras, a section of the Hindu ruling class. Despite this predominantly Moslem population, the Maharaja had acceded to India on behalf of Kashmir. India had accepted accession provisionally pending a plebiscite. It is obvious that India is, however, interested in retaining Kashmir, among other reasons because of Pakistan's weakness. India feels it must protect Kashmir which touches on three foreign borders including that of the USSR. 3. The leader of the Kashmir National Congress is Sheikh Abdullah, a Moslem who, placed in this position through the influence of Nehru, is considered a puppet of the Indian Government and, in Pakistan opinion, is a traitor to the Moslem group,

4. Superimposed on the struggle for accession of Kashmir to India or Pakistan, is the fact that the northwestern frontier districts in the neighbourhood of the Khyber Pass are over-run by Pathan tribesmen - nomadic brigands who live by fighting and looting. For two hundred years the British, with well-organized forces, have been able to maintain fairly good order in this region, but this success can be attributed to bribery rather than to control by force. Long experience had convinced them that it was useless to oppose with force the hit-and-run tactics of the tribesmen who could hide out in inaccessible places and live virtually in any way on anything. In the belief that persuasion was the only way by which peace could be maintained in this area the British subsidized the tribes with an annual payment of approximately £3,500,000, ostensibly for the purpose of guarding the Khyber Pass.

5. In October 1947, the Pathan tribesmen invaded Kashmir allegedly to liberate the Moslems although it seems more likely that their chief motive was to obtain loot. On nearing Srinagar, the summer capital of Kashmir, they stopped at Baramulla and completely looted and destroyed the town. This threat to Srinagar caused the Maharaja to seek military aid from India as a result of which the Indian Government decided to strike quickly and sent troops in an attempt to prevent Kashmir from being over-run by the tribesmen. Military operations against the invaders have not been too successful. India alleges that Pakistan has at least permitted aid to go from its territory to the invaders.

6. The situation is now gravely dangerous. India has appealed to the Security Council for settlement of the issue, meantime threatening to invade Pakistan to cut off assistance to the invaders as a base for operations against Kashmir. If invasion occurs and Pakistan resists, the most terrible consequences will undoubtedly follow. Communal massacres may be anticipated not only in Kashmir but in India and Pakistan as well.

7. Mr. Kearney felt that opportunity for possible settlement did exist and he regretted that neither state seemed willing to take advantage of it. He believed it should be possible for both sides to get together and buy off the tribesmen. Without settling the tribal problem it would be extremely difficult to hold a plebiscite.

8. Both parties have signified agreement to the holding of a plebiscite to determine to which state Kashmir should accede but the way in which it should be conducted raises a problem. Jinnah contends that the pressure brought to bear by Abdullah makes a free vote impossible. India has suggested that an international commission be appointed to conduct the plebiscite. Weather conditions will prevent the holding of a plebiscite until the spring, but if it could then be conducted under the aegis of the Security Council the situation might be relieved. In the meantime, however, the Security Council is faced with the need of finding a settlement of the immediate problem. If it appoints a commission and issues a "stand-still" order, communal war might be avoided but it must be remembered that dealings with nomadic tribes cannot be conducted on the same basis as with an organized state.

9. Mr. Riddell asked what might be the result of a plebiscite held under free conditions. Mr. Kearney thought that with the Moslem majority the vote would favour accession of Kashmir to Pakistan.

10. Mr. MacKay asked if there were any British forces left in India. Mr. Kearney said that there were no British units but a few small details which were being rapidly repatriated. Pakistan, anxious to obtain all military, technical and financial aid, had offered more attractive contracts to encourage the enlistment of former British soldiers in the Pakistan Army. India, on the other hand, preferred to keep assistance from outside sources to a minimum and only accepted British soldiers on sufferance. (There appear to be about 500 British officers in the Pakistan Army and about 200 in the Indian Army.)

11. Mr. Riddell commented on the very favourable impression made at the last session of the United Nations General Assembly by Sir Mohammed Zafrullah Khan, Pakistan's new foreign minister, and asked how great his influence might be. Mr. Kearney thought there was evidence of lack of coordination with his own government but felt that it would be difficult to estimate his influence at the present time.

12. Mr. Hopkins asked why India had referred the Kashmir dispute to the Security Council while Pakistan had brought it to the attention of the Commonwealth governments. Mr. Kearney said that India had not agreed to discussions with the Commonwealth governments so Pakistan had threatened to refer the matter to the Security Council but delayed in doing so and the Indians, conscious of their precarious position, had therefore taken the initiative.