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Economic Impact of International Education in Canada - An Update

Appendix 2 Scenario Analysis

In this appendix, we provide an assessment of how total expenditure will change for four different scenarios of increase in the number of international students in the province at the post-secondary level.

For the purposes of this analysis, we focus on assessing how total expenditure changes:

  • when a portion of students as represented by CIC data may not be actively pursuing formal training;
  • when a portion of post-secondary students pursue part-time study; or
  • when living expenses are higher or lower.

In the rest of this appendix, we will show total expenditure will change as a result of changes in international student enrollment or spending patterns.

Before we proceed, we reproduce Table 13 in the report for comparison purposes.
Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, by Province and Territory, 2010

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, by Province and Territory, 2010
 Secondary or lessTradeUniversityOther post-
secondary
OtherTotal Expenditure
Newfoundland
and Labrador
$1,700,000$702,000$35,927,000$2,107,000$234,000$40,670,000
Prince Edward Island$1,440,000$577,000$22,856,000$2,502,000$ 385,000$17,760,000
Nova Scotia$16,720,000$7,023,000$173,340,000$15,730,000$4,354,000$217,167,000
New Brunswick$7,951,000$1,731,000$72,975,000$6,658,000$4,261,000$93,576,000
Quebec$29,437,000$30,870,000$829,654,000$98,194,000$26,371,000$1,014,526,000
Ontario$291,984,000$316,504,000$1,441,146,000$673,685,000$179,289,000$2,902,608,000
Manitoba$15,210,000$5,364,000$116,154,000$14,718,000$2,338,000$153,784,000
Saskatchewan$14,455,000$1,565,000$96,516,000$6,687,000$1,280,000$230,503,000
Alberta$66,152,000$59,747,000$288,052,000$60,705,000$11,981,000$486,637,000
British Columbia$317,998,000$247,979,000$878,807,000$347,814,000$71,495,000$1,864,093,000
Yukon, Northwest
Territories and Nunavut
- $205,000$213,000$205,000-$623,000
Total$763,047,000$672,267,000$3,955,640,000$1,229,005,000$301,988,000$6,921,947,000

Source: RKA Estimates

Scenario 1. Assuming 5% of CIC students are not in fact actively pursuing study

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, Assuming 5% Students Not in Training
 Secondary or lessTradeUniversityOther Post-SecondaryOther Total Expenditure
Newfoundland
and Labrador
$1,655,000$686,000$35,044,000$2,057,000$229,000$39,671,000
Prince Edward Island$1,400,000$560,000$22,155,000$2,428,000$373,000$26,916,000
Nova Scotia$16,302,000$6,860,000$169,135,000$15,367,000$4,253,000$211,917,000
New Brunswick$7,720,000$1,691,000$71,228,000$6,506,000$4,164,000$91,309,000
Quebec$28,725,000$30,063,000$806,996,000$95,627,000$25,682,000$987,093,000
Ontario$283,610,000$307,820,000$1,399,918,000$655,200,000$174,369,000$2,820,917,000
Manitoba$14,788,000$5,246,000$113,447,000$14,392,000$2,287,000$150,160,000
Saskatchewan$14,042,000$1,526,000$94,016,000$6,521,000$1,249,000$117,354,000
Alberta$64,380,000$58,073,000$279,652,000$59,005,000$11,646,000$472,756,000
British Columbia$308,718,000$241,476,000$854,727,000$338,693,000$69,620,000$1,813,234,000
Yukon, Northwest
Territories and Nunavut
$0$201,000$208,000$201,000$0$610,000
Total$741,340,000$654,202,000$3,846,526,000$1,195,997,000$293,872,000$6,731,937,000

Total expenditure was reduced by 3%.

Scenario 2. Assuming 5/6 of CIC Post Secondary students paid full tuition and fees and 1/6 CIC Post Secondary students paid half tuition and fees.

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, Assuming 5/6 of CIC Post Secondary students paid full tuition and fees and 1/6 CIC Post Secondary students paid half tuition and fees
 Secondary or lessTradeUniversityOther Post-SecondaryOther Total Expenditure
Newfoundland
and Labrador
$1,700,000$675,000$34,456,000$2,025,000$234,000$39,090,000
Prince Edward Island$1,440,000$549,000$21,688,000$2,379,000$385,000$26,441,000
Nova Scotia$16,720,000$6,752,000$166,332,000$15,124,000$4,354,000$209,282,000
New Brunswick$7,951,000$1,665,000$70,063,000$6,405,000$4,261,000$90,345,000
Quebec$29,437,000$29,525,000$791,890,000$93,916,000$26,371,000$971,139,000
Ontario$291,984,000$302,031,000$1,372,432,000$642,877,000$179,289,000$2,788,613,000
Manitoba$15,210,000$5,166,000$111,642,000$14,174,000$2,338,000$148,530,000
Saskatchewan$14,455,000$1,500,000$92,348,000$6,411,000$1,280,000$115,994,000
Alberta$66,152,000$56,957,000$274,052,000$57,871,000$11,981,000$467,013,000
British Columbia$317,998,000$237,141,000$838,673,000$332,613,000$71,495,000$1,797,920,000
Yukon, Northwest
Territories and Nunavut
$0$198,000$205,000$198,000$0$601,000
Total$763,047,000$642,159,000$3,773,781,000$1,173,993,000$301,988,000$6,654,968,000

Total expenditure was reduced by 4%.

Scenario 3. Assuming Living Expenses are 10% Higher

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, Assuming 10% Higher Living Expenses
 Secondary or lessTradeUniversityOther Post-SecondaryOther Total Expenditure
Newfoundland
and Labrador
$1,780,000$740,000$37,754,000$2,219,000$247,000$42,740,000
Prince Edward Island$1,504,000$601,000$23,740,000$2,604,000$401,000$28,850,000
Nova Scotia$17,556,000$7,400,000$182,264,000$16,576,000$4,588,000$228,384,000
New Brunswick$8,283,000$1,825,000$76,779,000$7,020,000$4,493,000$98,400,000
Quebec$30,958,000$32,343,000$867,303,000$102,880,000$27,630,000$1,061,114,000
Ontario$304,434,000$330,786,000$1,502,804,000$704,084,000$187,379,000$3,029,487,000
Manitoba$15,886,000$5,663,000$122,355,000$15,537,000$2,468,000$161,909,000
Saskatchewan$15,074,000$1,644,000$101,167,000$7,025,000$1,345,000$126,255,000
Alberta$69,223,000$62,374,000$300,058,000$63,375,000$12,508,000$507,538,000
British Columbia$331,238,000$259,771,000$918,527,000$364,354,000$74,895,000$1,948,785,000
Yukon, Northwest
Territories and Nunavut
$0$218,000$225,000$218,000$0$661,000
Total$795,936,000$703,365,000$4,132,976,000$1,285,892,000$315,954,000$7,234,123,000

Total expenditure would increase by 4.5%.

Scenario 4. Assuming Living Expenses are 10% Lower

Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, Assuming 10% Lower Living Expenses
 Secondary or lessTradeUniversityOther Post-SecondaryOther Total Expenditure
Newfoundland
and Labrador
$1,620,000$665,000$34,100,000$1,995,000$222,000$38,602,000
Prince Edward Island$1,376,000$554,000$21,973,000$2,399,000$369,000$26,671,000
Nova Scotia$15,884,000$6,645,000$164,416,000$14,885,000$4,120,000$205,950,000
New Brunswick$7,619,000$1,637,000$69,171,000$6,295,000$4,029,000$88,751,000
Quebec$27,915,000$29,397,000$792,005,000$93,508,000$25,113,000$967,938,000
Ontario$279,534,000$302,223,000$1,379,489,000$643,286,000$171,198,000$2,775,730,000
Manitoba$14,534,000$5,066,000$109,953,000$13,899,000$2,208,000$145,660,000
Saskatchewan$13,835,000$1,486,000$91,866,000$6,349,000$1,216,000$114,752,000
Alberta$63,080,000$57,119,000$276,046,000$58,036,000$11,454,000$465,735,000
British Columbia$304,759,000$236,186,000$839,088,000$331,274,000$68,095,000$1,779,402,000
Yukon, Northwest
Territories and Nunavut
$0$193,000$201,000$193,000$0$587,000
Total$730,156,000$641,171,000$3,778,308,000$1,172,119,000$288,024,000$6,609,778,000

Total expenditure would decrease by 4.5%.

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Date Modified:
2013-12-31