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Appendix 2 Scenario Analysis | Economic Impact of International Education in Canada
PDF VersionEconomic Impact of International Education in Canada - An Update
Appendix 2 Scenario Analysis
In this appendix, we provide an assessment of how total expenditure will change for four different scenarios of increase in the number of international students in the province at the post-secondary level.
For the purposes of this analysis, we focus on assessing how total expenditure changes:
- when a portion of students as represented by CIC data may not be actively pursuing formal training;
- when a portion of post-secondary students pursue part-time study; or
- when living expenses are higher or lower.
In the rest of this appendix, we will show total expenditure will change as a result of changes in international student enrollment or spending patterns.
Before we proceed, we reproduce Table 13 in the report for comparison purposes.
Estimated Total Expenditure of International Students in Canada by Level of Study, by Province and Territory, 2010
| Secondary or less | Trade | University | Other post- secondary | Other | Total Expenditure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | $1,700,000 | $702,000 | $35,927,000 | $2,107,000 | $234,000 | $40,670,000 |
| Prince Edward Island | $1,440,000 | $577,000 | $22,856,000 | $2,502,000 | $ 385,000 | $17,760,000 |
| Nova Scotia | $16,720,000 | $7,023,000 | $173,340,000 | $15,730,000 | $4,354,000 | $217,167,000 |
| New Brunswick | $7,951,000 | $1,731,000 | $72,975,000 | $6,658,000 | $4,261,000 | $93,576,000 |
| Quebec | $29,437,000 | $30,870,000 | $829,654,000 | $98,194,000 | $26,371,000 | $1,014,526,000 |
| Ontario | $291,984,000 | $316,504,000 | $1,441,146,000 | $673,685,000 | $179,289,000 | $2,902,608,000 |
| Manitoba | $15,210,000 | $5,364,000 | $116,154,000 | $14,718,000 | $2,338,000 | $153,784,000 |
| Saskatchewan | $14,455,000 | $1,565,000 | $96,516,000 | $6,687,000 | $1,280,000 | $230,503,000 |
| Alberta | $66,152,000 | $59,747,000 | $288,052,000 | $60,705,000 | $11,981,000 | $486,637,000 |
| British Columbia | $317,998,000 | $247,979,000 | $878,807,000 | $347,814,000 | $71,495,000 | $1,864,093,000 |
| Territories* | - | $205,000 | $213,000 | $205,000 | - | $623,000 |
| Total | $763,047,000 | $672,267,000 | $3,955,640,000 | $1,229,005,000 | $301,988,000 | $6,921,947,000 |
*Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
Source: RKA Estimates
Scenario 1. Assuming 5% of CIC students are not in fact actively pursuing study
| Secondary or less | Trade | University | Other Post-Secondary | Other | Total Expenditure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | $1,655,000 | $686,000 | $35,044,000 | $2,057,000 | $229,000 | $39,671,000 |
| Prince Edward Island | $1,400,000 | $560,000 | $22,155,000 | $2,428,000 | $373,000 | $26,916,000 |
| Nova Scotia | $16,302,000 | $6,860,000 | $169,135,000 | $15,367,000 | $4,253,000 | $211,917,000 |
| New Brunswick | $7,720,000 | $1,691,000 | $71,228,000 | $6,506,000 | $4,164,000 | $91,309,000 |
| Quebec | $28,725,000 | $30,063,000 | $806,996,000 | $95,627,000 | $25,682,000 | $987,093,000 |
| Ontario | $283,610,000 | $307,820,000 | $1,399,918,000 | $655,200,000 | $174,369,000 | $2,820,917,000 |
| Manitoba | $14,788,000 | $5,246,000 | $113,447,000 | $14,392,000 | $2,287,000 | $150,160,000 |
| Saskatchewan | $14,042,000 | $1,526,000 | $94,016,000 | $6,521,000 | $1,249,000 | $117,354,000 |
| Alberta | $64,380,000 | $58,073,000 | $279,652,000 | $59,005,000 | $11,646,000 | $472,756,000 |
| British Columbia | $308,718,000 | $241,476,000 | $854,727,000 | $338,693,000 | $69,620,000 | $1,813,234,000 |
| Territories* | $0 | $201,000 | $208,000 | $201,000 | $0 | $610,000 |
| Total | $741,340,000 | $654,202,000 | $3,846,526,000 | $1,195,997,000 | $293,872,000 | $6,731,937,000 |
*Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
Total expenditure was reduced by 3%.
Scenario 2. Assuming 5/6 of CIC Post Secondary students paid full tuition and fees and 1/6 CIC Post Secondary students paid half tuition and fees
| Secondary or less | Trade | University | Other Post-Secondary | Other | Total Expenditure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | $1,700,000 | $675,000 | $34,456,000 | $2,025,000 | $234,000 | $39,090,000 |
| Prince Edward Island | $1,440,000 | $549,000 | $21,688,000 | $2,379,000 | $385,000 | $26,441,000 |
| Nova Scotia | $16,720,000 | $6,752,000 | $166,332,000 | $15,124,000 | $4,354,000 | $209,282,000 |
| New Brunswick | $7,951,000 | $1,665,000 | $70,063,000 | $6,405,000 | $4,261,000 | $90,345,000 |
| Quebec | $29,437,000 | $29,525,000 | $791,890,000 | $93,916,000 | $26,371,000 | $971,139,000 |
| Ontario | $291,984,000 | $302,031,000 | $1,372,432,000 | $642,877,000 | $179,289,000 | $2,788,613,000 |
| Manitoba | $15,210,000 | $5,166,000 | $111,642,000 | $14,174,000 | $2,338,000 | $148,530,000 |
| Saskatchewan | $14,455,000 | $1,500,000 | $92,348,000 | $6,411,000 | $1,280,000 | $115,994,000 |
| Alberta | $66,152,000 | $56,957,000 | $274,052,000 | $57,871,000 | $11,981,000 | $467,013,000 |
| British Columbia | $317,998,000 | $237,141,000 | $838,673,000 | $332,613,000 | $71,495,000 | $1,797,920,000 |
| Territories* | $0 | $198,000 | $205,000 | $198,000 | $0 | $601,000 |
| Total | $763,047,000 | $642,159,000 | $3,773,781,000 | $1,173,993,000 | $301,988,000 | $6,654,968,000 |
*Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
Total expenditure was reduced by 4%.
Scenario 3. Assuming Living Expenses are 10% Higher
| Secondary or less | Trade | University | Other Post-Secondary | Other | Total Expenditure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | $1,780,000 | $740,000 | $37,754,000 | $2,219,000 | $247,000 | $42,740,000 |
| Prince Edward Island | $1,504,000 | $601,000 | $23,740,000 | $2,604,000 | $401,000 | $28,850,000 |
| Nova Scotia | $17,556,000 | $7,400,000 | $182,264,000 | $16,576,000 | $4,588,000 | $228,384,000 |
| New Brunswick | $8,283,000 | $1,825,000 | $76,779,000 | $7,020,000 | $4,493,000 | $98,400,000 |
| Quebec | $30,958,000 | $32,343,000 | $867,303,000 | $102,880,000 | $27,630,000 | $1,061,114,000 |
| Ontario | $304,434,000 | $330,786,000 | $1,502,804,000 | $704,084,000 | $187,379,000 | $3,029,487,000 |
| Manitoba | $15,886,000 | $5,663,000 | $122,355,000 | $15,537,000 | $2,468,000 | $161,909,000 |
| Saskatchewan | $15,074,000 | $1,644,000 | $101,167,000 | $7,025,000 | $1,345,000 | $126,255,000 |
| Alberta | $69,223,000 | $62,374,000 | $300,058,000 | $63,375,000 | $12,508,000 | $507,538,000 |
| British Columbia | $331,238,000 | $259,771,000 | $918,527,000 | $364,354,000 | $74,895,000 | $1,948,785,000 |
| Territories* | $0 | $218,000 | $225,000 | $218,000 | $0 | $661,000 |
| Total | $795,936,000 | $703,365,000 | $4,132,976,000 | $1,285,892,000 | $315,954,000 | $7,234,123,000 |
*Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
Total expenditure would increase by 4.5%.
Scenario 4. Assuming Living Expenses are 10% Lower
| Secondary or less | Trade | University | Other Post-Secondary | Other | Total Expenditure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | $1,620,000 | $665,000 | $34,100,000 | $1,995,000 | $222,000 | $38,602,000 |
| Prince Edward Island | $1,376,000 | $554,000 | $21,973,000 | $2,399,000 | $369,000 | $26,671,000 |
| Nova Scotia | $15,884,000 | $6,645,000 | $164,416,000 | $14,885,000 | $4,120,000 | $205,950,000 |
| New Brunswick | $7,619,000 | $1,637,000 | $69,171,000 | $6,295,000 | $4,029,000 | $88,751,000 |
| Quebec | $27,915,000 | $29,397,000 | $792,005,000 | $93,508,000 | $25,113,000 | $967,938,000 |
| Ontario | $279,534,000 | $302,223,000 | $1,379,489,000 | $643,286,000 | $171,198,000 | $2,775,730,000 |
| Manitoba | $14,534,000 | $5,066,000 | $109,953,000 | $13,899,000 | $2,208,000 | $145,660,000 |
| Saskatchewan | $13,835,000 | $1,486,000 | $91,866,000 | $6,349,000 | $1,216,000 | $114,752,000 |
| Alberta | $63,080,000 | $57,119,000 | $276,046,000 | $58,036,000 | $11,454,000 | $465,735,000 |
| British Columbia | $304,759,000 | $236,186,000 | $839,088,000 | $331,274,000 | $68,095,000 | $1,779,402,000 |
| Territories* | $0 | $193,000 | $201,000 | $193,000 | $0 | $587,000 |
| Total | $730,156,000 | $641,171,000 | $3,778,308,000 | $1,172,119,000 | $288,024,000 | $6,609,778,000 |
*Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut
Total expenditure would decrease by 4.5%.
