Crisis Warning and Response

Crisis Warning and Response

Crisis warning is a process of assessing and analyzing sources of instability in countries at risk of violent conflict and determining when and how to respond. START undertakes crisis warning and response to provide an assessment and analysis of sources of instability in countries at risk of violent conflict, and to determine how to respond effectively.

Violent conflict is not entirely predictable, nor entirely random. START focuses on early warning mechanisms to identify triggers of conflict. Using poverty as an example, we might use early warning systems to look for evidence of horizontal inequality between key groups, or whether the country’s government is engaging in favouritism, leading to a burning sense of injustice. 

START uses crisis warning processes to better predict the risks that states face internally and/or pose externally. Risks are identified by combining a variety of indicators with real-time analysis from both open and closed sources. START then uses these crisis warning assessments to provide guidance on the type of engagement that would be required to prevent or mitigate crises and to ensure that Canadian interests and values are secured and promoted. Crisis warning helps the Government of Canada to respond quickly and with a greater range of relevant response options.