Economic impact of international education in Canada – 2017 update

Appendix 3 - Scenario analysis

3.1. Scenario analysis – Assuming higher student expenditures

This section provides an assessment of the total economic impacts under a different scenario, in which we assumed, on average, 10% higher spending by international students than we did in the base run in the main part of the report.

Under this scenario, total annual student expenditures become $14.1 billion in 2015 and $17.1 billion in 2016. Three sets of impacts – direct, combined direct and indirect, and total economic impacts (direct, indirect and induced) – are summarized in the table below.

Table 38: Scenario analysis: Direct, combined direct and indirect, and total (direct, indirect and induced) economic impacts of international students, assuming 10% higher annual student expenditures, Canada, 2015 ($millions)
 Direct ImpactsDirect and Indirect ImpactsDirect, Indirect & Induced Impacts
Output$12,778.7$18,781.9$24,542.2
GDP$8,440.6$11,581.2$14,964.5
Labour Income$5,109.9$7,028.6$8,623.9
Jobs - FTE94,423130,502162,451
Jobs (incl. f/t, p/t, temporary)113,970154,011191,827
Indirect Taxesn/a$1,340.1$2,095.8
Personal Income Taxesn/a$1,225.5$1,504.8
Table 39: Scenario analysis: Direct, combined direct and indirect, and total (direct, indirect and induced) economic impacts of international students, assuming 10% higher annual student expenditures, Canada, 2016 ($millions)
 Direct ImpactsDirect and Indirect ImpactsDirect, Indirect & Induced Impacts
Annual Student Expenditure$17,087.3n/an/a
Output$15,515.2$22,792.9$29,760.2
GDP$10,255.7$14,061.3$18,151.3
Labour Income$6,186.0$8,514.0$10,443.9
Jobs - FTE113,744157,462196,049
Jobs (incl. f/t, p/t, temporary)137,229185,747231,421
Indirect Taxesn/a$1,618.1$2,532.4
Personal Income Taxesn/a$1,485.0$1,823.1

3.2. Scenario analysis – Assuming lower student expenditures

This section provides an assessment of 10% lower spending due to many factors and, consequently, how total expenditures will change in a different scenario. In this scenario, we assumed that international students studying in Canada receive Canadian government and/or university financial support that is equivalent to the magnitude of such support being offered to international students in the U.S. Furthermore, we assumed that additional tourism activities by the family and friends of international students studying in Canada follow a pattern that is similar to that of non-U.K. students pursuing university education in the U.K.[36]

The assumptions underlying alternate government/university support to international students are as follows:

  • 8% of expenditures for undergraduate students were assumed to come from support by Canadian governments and/or universities;
  • 35% of expenditures for students in master’s and PhD programs were assumed to come from support by Canadian governments and/or universities;
  • 10% of expenditure for students in trade and college programs were assumed to come from support by Canadian governments and/or colleges and institutes;
  • For every 10 international students, there would have been one family member and/or friend visiting them while they study in Canada.

This scenario can be interpreted as the most conservative values of impacts in the current study.

Under these conditions, total annual student expenditures become $11.5 billion in 2015 and $13.9 billion in 2016. Altogether, three sets of impact values – direct impacts, combined direct and indirect impacts, and total economic impacts (direct, indirect and induced) – are summarized in the tables below.

Table 40: Scenario analysis: Direct, combined direct and indirect, and total (direct, indirect and induced) economic impacts of international students, assuming 10% lower expenditures (due to higher values of government support and fewer family member/friend visits), Canada, 2015 ($millions)
 Direct ImpactDirect and Indirect ImpactsDirect, Indirect & Induced Impacts
Annual Student Expenditure$11,469.1n/an/a
Output$10,413.8$15,261.9$19,967.6
GDP$6,902.9$9,442.0$12,207.0
Labour Income$4,185.4$5,737.8$7,040.8
Jobs - FTE77,025106,183132,265
Jobs (incl. f/t, p/t, temporary)92,865125,225156,099
Indirect Taxesn/a$1,075.3$1,691.8
Personal Income Taxesn/a$999.2$1,227.2
Table 41: Scenario I: Direct, combined direct and indirect, and Total (direct, indirect and induced) economic impacts of international students, assuming 10% lower Expenditures (due to higher values of government support and fewer family member/friend visits), Canada, 2016 ($millions)
 Direct ImpactDirect and Indirect ImpactsDirect, Indirect & Induced Impacts
Annual Student Expenditure$13,885.4n/an/a
Output$12,628.2$18,499.1$24,183.3
GDP$8,376.5$11,449.8$14,787.5
Labour Income$5,060.1$6,941.4$8,515.8
Jobs - FTE92,660127,958159,420
Jobs (incl. f/t, p/t, temporary)111,671150,842188,086
Indirect Taxesn/a$1,296.5$2,041.6
Personal Income Taxesn/a$1,209.6$1,485.1

[36] From Universities U.K.’s study in 2014: The Impact of Universities on the UK economy.